Learning more about Rayan the simulation software
What is cattle breeding simulation and how does it work?
As you know the profit means incomes minus costs but more profit means less cost or more income. In other words the efficiency should be increased.
Imagine we want to increase the profit in a cow herd:
- Of course the main goal is daily milk. Feeding is the effective factor in this regard. It’s enough to change feeding costs and increase profit.
- The second goal is reproduction that’s periodical and has many derivatives like reproduction and genetics personnel (doctor, inoculator, heat detective) and includes other works. Adjusting these factors needs intensive management ability and experiment
After one period for example one month we can observe the results of adjusting two above goals in managers’ fixed cost.
But if we want to increase efficiency what are the effective factors?
- As introduction all the ways of more profit can be directly effective. In addition other factors like livestock replacement in herd cost (rejuvenation of herd and better livestock age) influence on efficiency
- Factors and reasons of deleting from herd, age of deletion, delivery of deletion and other related parameters
- Effect of facilities on processes’ optimization
In addition there are more thousands of effective factors but there isn’t any software to measure work.
The question is that
- If a researcher wants study these factors on a herd, to what extend is he/she allowed to work?
- How much does it need to examine in a real place?
- How much time does it need?
We’re sure that you know the answer. May be it is hard for a rancher to find someone who lets him to eliminate the herd or with expensive costs changes or equips work tools.
Here a simulator with less cost and time can help to many researches.
What is simulator?
In a simple word we can describe it as follows:
Imagine we want to trace a line between two points of course the best way is to use the ruler. If we want to see where the end of line is, we can put a part of ruler on pervious line and continue to trace.
In other words, simulator is a software that uses current data to start analyze and tries to trace the future line but it lets user to determine line’s direction.
What is Rayan simulator and how does it work?
Rayan simulator is a simulator of cattle breeding data and in addition to predict the future it can show them objectively. We can divide simulator work in different parts:
- With analyzing data, coefficients, processes and factors in information it makes a data bank for learning by itself. It means we put a part of ruler on previous line or pervious data to start drawing the line.
- With analyzing information it measures important points like distortion, data spread, connection, problem and other features of information. If it is necessary it can change them to default standard. For example consider snow fever in a herd. In this condition more heifers would be eliminated in a month but it doesn’t mean it will happen again in the next years in this month so this coefficient changes to standard elimination.
- After than user can change this coefficient for example decreases cattle abortion or increases male or female delivery (with sexed sperm)
- In the next part we can add the events that may be happen in a possible period to simulator. For example selling and buying livestock in different ages, sexes, condition (pregnant, non-pregnant, cow, dried and their compounds with livestock kind like heifer, cow or free Martin)
- In computing part we can determine the years for computation and after that we must wait for the end of computation. In this part the software is equipped with a strong error detective and reporting system that not only detect sudden problems in inside computation, but also it is possible to see livestock in each process.
- After running the software we can see the results of computation separately. The information is completely real and it includes basic features of livestock like body, sexuality (male/ female/ male free Martin/ female free Martin), blood purity (with exact determination), family, father, mother, birth date and elimination date as well as the reason for elimination and even buyers.
- In that part we can choose a file of livestock and see a summary of the operation for each livestock. This operation includes insemination, dryness, pregnancy test, abortion, singleton and twins birth
- In the other part of program we can add daily compound of herd. This compound shows standard livestock cycle in different ranges.
Some points about simulator
- Since it can analyze the herd, it makes special coefficient. It can say where our place is. The important point of this analyze is that all the events outside of standard will turn to standard.
Therefore it filters the information.
- Since Rayan simulator was written in the same rhythm of managers’ software, it can connect to them. This connection means the simulator uses current numbers in fixed cost and feeding software to determine the future risk, for example food share change and its determination
- The next point is approximate future estimation. The main goal of Pars Holding in this project is to run herd compound in budget but it is obvious that this goal isn’t enough and it’s just an example. 99 percent accuracy of computation will make this software ready for next goals.
- The most important points of this simulator are less risk and fast learning. More connected data in Rayan software helps to determine bigger challenges without threating factors such as financial load or idea time. For example explained 10 percent above and individual livestock are some examples that VWP or below herd can be computed in few hours (instead of few months) with zero cost.
Internal structure of simulator
- If we consider livestock life in this way we understand diverse complexities of making simulator. These complexities more than life process should be determined according to other factors like herd management, technologies, environmental and genetics condition. The probability of these factors is also important.
- To identify these factors, 8 technical, statistical and managerial experts examine this chart and finally prepare all factors as draft.
- After determination and compounding 643 applicable parameters in this simulator, the first form with programming ability is made.
- After that 700 people per hour provide different software designs and edit formula to develop in future
It should be mentioned that development team transform to a cohesive 3 members group that manages production of Pars cattle breeding holding.
- Since the survival of software depends on documentary, after concluding, documentary starts with special training for development.
What are the next goals of development?
If we consider the history of animal husbandry science we can find lots of effective scholars. These scholars in their time started new methods of computation, process and ways of breeding for current operation so a part of our profit owe to them.
In our company in the first place we tried to determine and save their efforts in livestock breeding. Software like herd management (cow and livestock), fixed price (cow and livestock), feeding and fattening are some of the resulted software.
The software divides in to two groups:
- Present management
- Past management
We know that in the past there were future prediction but it was stable and with interpretive numbers as well as low flexibility.
Today we decide to add present and past abilities to our software to predict future.
Therefore the goals are:
- Connecting to fixed price and feeding
- Costs, prices and income computation based on assumed currency with economic coefficient
- People participation in gathering information according to participation history coefficient
- Examine the amount of milk production with curve assumption of normal milk or matching according to mother and grandma’s milk
- Development for elimination suggestion or buying livestock according to current facilities and capacities
- Complete program coefficient for other cow races
- Development suitable coefficient with livestock and known races
- Possibility for using change coefficient technology like breast pump change/ feeding tools/ sonographer machine
- Making resulted coefficient from other information banks (like atmosphere data bank) or creative computation like moon light